Folding an Overpair

One thing that seems to happen with far too much regularity is players willing to throw away their entire stack of chips on an overpair. Many players from novices to moderately successful players will overplay an overpair and will often end up with nothing but a short stack and tilting rage. What they do not realize, however, is that most of these situations can be easily avoided with a little bit of observation and understanding of what is going on.

In order to illustrate the point, let’s look at a perfect example of how getting rid of an overpair can be the right decision. I am playing in a full-ring $1/$2 game and I am sitting on an average sized stack, let’s say $200. I am dealt pocket queens while sitting in the small blind. Always a nice hand and a particular good hand when there are only two people limping in in front of me. Naturally, I am looking to raise here and hopefully get into a heads up pot with one other person. In a heads up situation, a large pocket pair is much better than in a multi-way pot where it has an easier chance of being beaten. As such, I make a big raise, $12, and hope to get one person to call. Unfortunately for me, however, I get both people calling and I am not out of position with my pair.

The flop comes 7♠ – 8♠ – 4♣.

Obviously, this is not the greatest flop for a hand like mine. Sure, I happen to have an overpair but there are a lot of drawing hands that could be looking pretty good right here. There are numerous straight draws and a flush draw sitting on the table as well making things more difficult. The chances that the players who called might be holding suited connectors or a small or medium pocket pair are pretty good as those are hands that would be played in that sort of situation.

Despite the fact that there are a good number of drawing hands that they could be holding there is still a possibility that my pair of queens is best. There is no doubt that I am not playing against pocket kings or pocket aces as they would almost certainly have reraised pre flop to push out any marginal hands that might get a flop like this. I make a bet of $16 which is a decent sized bet – a little under half the size of the pot – which is a small enough bet but not so small as to make the other two players want to get their money in the middle to see the turn. Unless, of course, they are holding something with some possible action. Of course, both players call the bet.

Unfortunately, the fact that both players call reveals very little information about what they might be holding. They could both be on drawing hands or it is also quite possible that either one of them could be holding a set and slow playing the set in hopes to trap an overpair or get a hand like ace king to hit on something.

A 5♦ falls on the turn. Despite the fact that it adds another card to the straight possibility, it is not as big an issue as one might assume right off the bat. First, it means that if either of them are flush draws they have gotten a dead card and it would require that they had been holding an inside straight draw at the very least in order to have made their hand. Regardless, it does not bode well for my hand because if my queens aren’t good, I am looking at 2 outs which may or may not even win the hand for me if I am currently beat.

As I am out of position and do not really have any strong information about what my opponents are holding. I really do not have much of a choice except to check. There are many hands that beat mine and making a bet here could end up being costly and since I am not committed to the pot I can get away if I put on the brakes. So I decide to check and the player behind me bets $32 into the pot and the player behind him calls.

My decision to check is starting to look pretty good right here and I have to weigh my options on whether I want to fold or not. There are a number of things that need to be taken into consideration when you are thinking about whether or not to fold an overpair.

Since I am playing a cash game and not a tournament, there is no need to play a more risky game of poker since I am not in any danger of falling behind the curve due to the constantly increasing blinds. I have the option to play conservatively and wait for the best opportunities to build my stack instead of making moves in questionable positions.

I also look at the information that I am getting from my opponent. In this case, the bet of $32 is not a bet that was made as an overbet in an attempt to push a superior hand out of the pot and take it down right then and there but a bet that was just big enough to try and push the odds in favor of a call. Additionally, he is betting into the original aggressor – me – and I have shown signs of willingness to raise. Chances are, he probably has a pretty good hand and considering my hand, the chances of his hand being worse than mine, him holding a hand like pocket jacks, is very slim.

I also look at the fact that a player behind him has also called. One player raising could mean that he is trying to push the other two players out of the hand but the fact that the guy behind him calls as well means that, at the very least, one of them has a hand and if either of them have a hand, chances are good that my hand isn’t. Another thing that is important to look at is whether or not I am pot committed. Thankfully, because I decided to check the turn I am not pot committed and can get away from the hand while following sound statistics. In addition to all of these problems, I am still out of position like I have been from the start which is still a big disadvantage especially if I call and have to act first on the river.

Taking all of that into consideration, there is really no other choice but to fold my hand. The river comes and is a 2♣ and the raiser on the turn shows a set of sevens with the caller behind him flipping over an ace-high straight draw. If you were following my reasoning throughout the hand that this makes perfect sense and my analysis of the hand and what they were holding was pretty good. I wasn’t blinded by my overpair and was able to walk through the hand and fold my hand when it was no longer the probable winner. I got out of the hand and saved myself a good bit of money in addition to feeling good about my decision. Had I stayed in the hand hoping my overpair was good, I would have ended up looking at a much shorter stack and probably feeling really unintelligent to boot.

Posted by Joel on Jun 6 2010. Filed under Poker Strategy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry