Variance in Poker

In poker, it’s important to realize that in the short term luck plays a bigger role then skill due to what is known as bad variance. The upswings and downswings that every player experiences are commonly referred to as variance, which is a term used to measure the deviation which is present in a group of results, such as wins and losses in poker.

Variance in poker is something you really need to grasp. Even winning poker players will tell you that at some point in their career they have gone bust or experienced a huge downswing. In a game where there is an element of chance, this aspect of the game can’t be ignored and players will undoubtedly have periods of running bad even when playing well.

But did you know the type of game you play and the playing style you adopt can contribute to higher variance. For example, cash games have lower variance than sit-and-go’s and multi-table tournaments. In addition, the actual game you play will dramatically influence the amount of variance you will experience at the tables. Generally Texas Hold’em players will experience less swings than Pot-limit Omaha players, due to the fact that in No-Limit Texas Hold’em you can be a huge favorite pre and post flop, so if you are a consistent winner you will regularly get the money in good as a strong favorite. where as in Omaha you are regularly taking coin flips or a 60/40 favorite, so can expect a higher amount of variance.

It’s the same reason that multi-table tournaments are high variance games. In MTT’s you regularly have to win coin flip situations to run deep in a tournament and have a chance at winning one of them. Even professional MTT players can experience long periods where they have not won a tournament before receiving their next big pay day.

Another consideration is the number of tables you play. The optimal strategy for reducing variance would be to multi-table NLHE full ring games. The reason for this is because the more tables you play, the more volume you can get it, and so with the increased volume skill plays a larger role in your earnings and the variance is short term losses have less of an influence.

Tight players who are risk averse tend to be consistent winners, and their playing style is likely to be low variance. On the other hand aggressive players are the complete opposite and are very willing to take big risks in an attempt to win pots when they don’t have the best hand. This aggression can win more money win it works but the play is likely to be high variance.

Even though MTT’s are high variance games, poker pros know there are things which can be done to reduce variance. Vanessa Rousso was quoted as saying “A lot of the time, I’ll make my moves on the turn, rather than on the flop with strong hands in large fields like this because in order to survive a very large field, you’re going to have to survive a lot of situations where you’re a 70 percent favorite”. So instead of being aggressive and raising on the flop when she know she likely has the best hand, she will wait to be aggressive on the turn when she has improved her equity and chances of winning the hand. You have to remember that even if you are a 70/30 favorite you are going to get sucked out on 3 out of 10 times. This strategy can be incorporated in cash game play as well.

Winning is all about taking advantage of the edge you have over your opponents at the table. It doesn’t make sense to be willing to gamble and get involved in coin flip situations when you know you can find other spots to be a bigger favorite, and you will get those opportunities if you are a better player. But you need to accept that bad beats do happen in poker and if you expect to win every poker session you will be in for a big surprise. Even though skillful players will making more money then bad players in the long term, short term winnings can deviate substantially due to the element of chance. If variance is taking its toll on your confidence at the tables, see if you can chance your playing style or the type of games you play in as a way to reduce bad variance.

Posted by Joel on Sep 6 2010. Filed under Poker Strategy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry